The Russian military is rapidly increasing its territorial gains along the front line in Ukraine at a critical juncture in the conflict. Data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) indicates that Russia has captured nearly six times more territory in 2024 than in 2023 and is advancing towards vital Ukrainian logistical hubs in the eastern Donbas region.
In contrast, Ukraine's unexpected incursion into Russia's Kursk region is losing momentum, with Russian forces pushing back Kyiv's offensive. Experts have raised concerns about the effectiveness of this operation, with one labeling it a "strategic catastrophe" due to Ukraine's manpower shortages.
These developments occur amid uncertainty surrounding a potential second Donald Trump administration, which has pledged to end the war upon taking office in January, raising fears of reduced military aid to Ukraine.
Initially, the front line shifted quickly in the early months of the war, with Russia making rapid gains before a Ukrainian counteroffensive. However, in 2023, neither side achieved significant progress, leading to a stalemate. Recent ISW figures suggest a more favorable situation for Russia in 2024, based on verified social media footage and troop movement reports.
So far this year, Russian forces have seized approximately 2,700 sq km of Ukrainian territory, compared to just 465 sq km in all of 2023—a nearly six-fold increase. Dr. Marina Miron, a defense researcher at King's College London, warned that the Ukrainian eastern front might "collapse" if Russia continues its rapid advance.
Between September 1 and November 3, over 1,000 sq km were captured, indicating an acceleration in Russian offensives, particularly in Kupiansk, Kharkiv region, and Kurakhove, which is crucial for accessing the key logistical hub of Pokrovsk in Donetsk region.
The ISW notes that Russian forces have consistently advanced in eastern Ukraine. Kupiansk and areas east of the Oskil River, liberated during the 2022 Kharkiv offensive, are now being gradually retaken by Russia. A recent UK Ministry of Defence intelligence update reported that Russian troops are attempting to breach the northeastern outskirts of Kupiansk. Verified footage from November 13 shows a convoy of Russian armor being repelled after approaching within 4 km of the key bridge at Kupiansk, the last major road crossing in the area. While these reports do not necessarily indicate control, they highlight the strain on Ukraine's defensive line.
Since recapturing Vuhledar in October, a strategically significant position above key supply lines, Russia has focused resources on Kurakhove. Ukrainian defenders have so far repelled attacks from the south and east, but Russian forces are threatening to encircle them from the north and west. Col. Yevgeny Sasyko, a former head of strategic communications for Ukraine's general staff, described how Russian forces encircle cities, gradually overwhelming defenses.
Footage from Kurakhove shows extensive destruction, with residential buildings heavily damaged. The ISW estimates that Moscow currently controls a total of 110,649 sq km in Ukraine. In comparison, Ukrainian forces captured just over 1,171 sq km during the initial month of their incursion into Kursk, although Russian forces have since regained nearly half of that territory.
Despite these territorial gains, Russia's advance has come at a significant cost. An analysis by BBC Russian confirmed that at least 78,329 Russian troops have been killed since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022, with losses from September to November this year exceeding those from the same period in 2023 by more than 50%. The high casualty rates are exacerbated by the "meat grinder" tactics favored by Russian commanders, characterized by waves of recruits sent to exhaust Ukrainian defenses.
Some experts note that, despite Russian advances, the overall pace of the offensive remains slow. Military analyst David Handelman suggested that Ukrainian troops in the east are strategically withdrawing to conserve manpower and resources rather than facing a widespread collapse.
Ukraine launched its unexpected incursion into Russia's Kursk region in August, and the reasons for Russia's delayed response remain unclear. Dr. Miron posited that while the Kremlin faces domestic political repercussions for the prolonged incursion, its military leadership aimed to keep Ukrainian forces engaged in Kursk while making gains elsewhere.
Moscow is now determined to reclaim lost territory, deploying approximately 50,000 troops to the region. Verified videos from Kursk indicate intense fighting, with Russia incurring significant losses in personnel and equipment; however, data shows that Ukraine's control over the region is diminishing.
Since early October, Russian counterattacks have recaptured about 593 sq km in the border area, according to ISW figures. The Kursk incursion initially boosted Ukrainian morale during a challenging period, demonstrating their ability to surprise and challenge Russian forces. However, Dr. Miron described the operation as a moment of "tactical brilliance" that has turned into a "strategic catastrophe" for Ukraine.
The goal was to gain political leverage for potential negotiations and to divert Russian forces from the Donbas to liberate Kursk. Instead, experts note that Ukrainian units are now tied down in Kursk, with some of their most experienced forces and advanced mechanized units involved in the offensive.
Ukrainian leaders had hoped that the incursion would force Moscow to divert resources from eastern Ukraine, slowing their advances. However, most reinforcements appear to have been redirected to Kursk from less intense conflict areas. According to reports from Ukrainian soldiers, Russian troops sent to reinforce Kursk were primarily drawn from Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, where fighting is less intense, and some units attacking Kharkiv were also reassigned to Kursk as Ukraine managed to stall the Russian offensive there.
Territorial control is vital for both sides, as it strengthens their positions in any potential negotiations. Although no peace talks are currently underway, US President-elect Trump has claimed he could end the war within 24 hours, without elaborating on how.
On Tuesday, Ukraine fired US-supplied long-range missiles into Russia for the first time, following Washington's approval. This decision appears aimed at helping Ukraine maintain a foothold in the Kursk region, potentially to use as leverage in future negotiations.
However, Dr. Miron emphasized that Russia's advances have strengthened their negotiating position as Trump’s new foreign policy team prepares to assume office. "What they're controlling right now gives them a certain advantage," she stated. "If it comes to negotiations, the Russian side will likely stress that they will negotiate based on the battlefield configuration. From a Russian perspective, they have much better cards than the Ukrainians."
